Between Seretse and Now
I know I've tended to focus on the negatives below and in these various web pages. Sandy is concerned about this sort of representation of Africa. It is as though there are no positives, and nothing good about Africa. So he is using his novels to provide a differing, more positive image. And it is undoubtedly there, but my goodness, the negatives are so very, very negative. But, on the other hand, Botswana's positives are particularly impressive.
So far Botswana has successfully, and seemingly with little effort, although I strongly suspect that is misleading, avoided most of the appalling corruption, violence, oppression, and despotism of its neighbours, black and white, and would easily rate as the most successful former colony in Africa. And as all countries in Africa were colonies of one sort or another, at one time or another, that makes Botswana stand out as the most successful country in Africa, both above and below the Sahara.
When Botswana became independent, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. Through a series of very clever stratagems, Seretse built a platform from which Botswana has leapt to having one of the most rapidly growing economies in the world. Of course, this is principally through mining, and particularly the mining of diamonds.
Diamonds account for around one third of Botswana's gross domestic product (GDP, the total value of production in Botswana), between 70-80% of export earnings, and around 50% of the government's earnings. This is an extreme dependence on one economic sector. The risks are very clear. For example, while economic development has boomed over the last four or so decades, it went backwards in 2009.
The reason? The 2008 global financial crisis meant a huge proportion of rich men could no longer afford to buy their wives, lovers and mistresses diamonds. This has, fortunately, reversed since the worst couple of years. But the warning was there as to what could happen over the next few decades.
GDP growth was at about 6.2% in 2011, quite a healthy level. Per capita GDP was about $16,300 at the same time. While low compared to many so-called western countries, this is stunning considering where Botswana came from.
However, not everyone is benefiting. While the government claims unemployment was at 7.5% in 2007, middling high be western standards, unofficial estimates place it much, much higher, at around 40-50%. Botswana, along with Swaziland, is said to have the highest unemployment rate in the world. Further, some 47% of the population live under the poverty line of $US1 a day.
And while new mines are opening, mostly on Bushmen land, experts estimate there will be a significant decrease in diamond mining over the next twenty years. The risks for Botswana are dire. For example, De Beers (which is responsible for one third of the world’s diamonds) has pointed out that the Botswanan mines are getting depleted, with mining having to go deeper and deeper, and therefore becoming more expensive to operate.
On the other hand, diamonds were discovered in the Kalahari in the 1980s, and a holding De Beers sold because of the kerfuffle over the treatment of the Bushmen has started as a new diamond mine in 2014. Other companies are doing an examination for further diamond sources, and some areas identified are in those previously occupied by the Bushmen (see more on this in a later web page).
Some of the great beneficiaries of a building boom in the 1980s were Chinese construction companies, several of which are still in Botswana, benefiting from Botswanan taxes and the diamond mining. Benefiting from Botswanan taxes? You bet, they're the major beneficiaries of every infrastructure project funded by the government in Botswana. Questions have been raised about the quality of at least some of the construction, and criticism is growing about large scale construction projects being given to Chinese companies.
I have not been able to find out if the Chinese companies have done what has occurred in several other African countries, which is to bring in Chinese workers rather than use local workers, and then leave the workers behind at the end of the project. Of course, this is also on the verge of happening in Australia as well, with a recent (2016) trade agreement allowing 50% Chinese-owned companies, with, very potentially, the other 50% owned by ethnically Chinese-Australian front men, to import Chinese workers. There have already been problems with some companies underpaying and over-working Chinese workers in Australia, taking advantage of government unwillingness to properly regulate anything, and the much lauded, by conservatives and Liberals, loss of membership and power of the trade union movement.
So far Botswana has successfully, and seemingly with little effort, although I strongly suspect that is misleading, avoided most of the appalling corruption, violence, oppression, and despotism of its neighbours, black and white, and would easily rate as the most successful former colony in Africa. And as all countries in Africa were colonies of one sort or another, at one time or another, that makes Botswana stand out as the most successful country in Africa, both above and below the Sahara.
When Botswana became independent, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. Through a series of very clever stratagems, Seretse built a platform from which Botswana has leapt to having one of the most rapidly growing economies in the world. Of course, this is principally through mining, and particularly the mining of diamonds.
Diamonds account for around one third of Botswana's gross domestic product (GDP, the total value of production in Botswana), between 70-80% of export earnings, and around 50% of the government's earnings. This is an extreme dependence on one economic sector. The risks are very clear. For example, while economic development has boomed over the last four or so decades, it went backwards in 2009.
The reason? The 2008 global financial crisis meant a huge proportion of rich men could no longer afford to buy their wives, lovers and mistresses diamonds. This has, fortunately, reversed since the worst couple of years. But the warning was there as to what could happen over the next few decades.
GDP growth was at about 6.2% in 2011, quite a healthy level. Per capita GDP was about $16,300 at the same time. While low compared to many so-called western countries, this is stunning considering where Botswana came from.
However, not everyone is benefiting. While the government claims unemployment was at 7.5% in 2007, middling high be western standards, unofficial estimates place it much, much higher, at around 40-50%. Botswana, along with Swaziland, is said to have the highest unemployment rate in the world. Further, some 47% of the population live under the poverty line of $US1 a day.
And while new mines are opening, mostly on Bushmen land, experts estimate there will be a significant decrease in diamond mining over the next twenty years. The risks for Botswana are dire. For example, De Beers (which is responsible for one third of the world’s diamonds) has pointed out that the Botswanan mines are getting depleted, with mining having to go deeper and deeper, and therefore becoming more expensive to operate.
On the other hand, diamonds were discovered in the Kalahari in the 1980s, and a holding De Beers sold because of the kerfuffle over the treatment of the Bushmen has started as a new diamond mine in 2014. Other companies are doing an examination for further diamond sources, and some areas identified are in those previously occupied by the Bushmen (see more on this in a later web page).
Some of the great beneficiaries of a building boom in the 1980s were Chinese construction companies, several of which are still in Botswana, benefiting from Botswanan taxes and the diamond mining. Benefiting from Botswanan taxes? You bet, they're the major beneficiaries of every infrastructure project funded by the government in Botswana. Questions have been raised about the quality of at least some of the construction, and criticism is growing about large scale construction projects being given to Chinese companies.
I have not been able to find out if the Chinese companies have done what has occurred in several other African countries, which is to bring in Chinese workers rather than use local workers, and then leave the workers behind at the end of the project. Of course, this is also on the verge of happening in Australia as well, with a recent (2016) trade agreement allowing 50% Chinese-owned companies, with, very potentially, the other 50% owned by ethnically Chinese-Australian front men, to import Chinese workers. There have already been problems with some companies underpaying and over-working Chinese workers in Australia, taking advantage of government unwillingness to properly regulate anything, and the much lauded, by conservatives and Liberals, loss of membership and power of the trade union movement.
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